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Russia’s military interventions in Ukraine from 2014, and Syria from 2015, caused widespread surprise among Western policy communities, including in the United States. However, as the British scholar of Russia, Keir Giles, explains, these interventions represented the culmination of two well-established trends that had been clearly identified by Russia-watchers over preceding years. These were first, a mounting perception of direct threat against Russia from the West, and second, Russia’s own greatly increased capability for military or other action to respond to this perceived threat.Mr. Giles highlights the specific security preoccupations of Russian leaders over decades, not always perceptible outside Russia, which lead them to entirely different interpretations of current events from those taken for granted in the West. This mismatch of the understanding of the causes and drivers of world developments — and in particular, whether they are part of an overall campaign of hostility against Russia — carries with it the risk of conflict as Russia perceives entirely innocent future actions by the United States or the West as dangerous and destabilizing, and responds accordingly. This book concludes with a range of policy recommendations intended specifically to mitigate this risk.About the Author: KEIR GILES is the Director of the Conflict Studies Research Centre (CSRC), a group of deep subject matter experts on Eurasian security formerly attached to the United Kingdom (UK) Ministry of Defence. Now operating in the private sector, CSRC provides in-depth analysis on a wide range of security issues affecting Russia and its relations with overseas partners.After beginning his career working with paramilitary aviation in Russia and Ukraine immediately following the fall of the Soviet Union, Mr. Giles joined the BBC Monitoring Service (BBCM) to report on political and military affairs in the former Soviet space. While still working for the BBCM, Mr. Giles also worked for CSRC at the UK Defence Academy where he wrote and briefed for UK and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) government agencies on a wide range of Russian defense and security issues. He is an Associate Fellow of the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) in London, UK, as well as a regular contributor to research projects on Russian security issues in both the UK and Europe. Mr. Giles’s work has appeared in a wide range of academic and military publications across Europe and in the United States.
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